Local News
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute expert shares real estate outlook
Rob Shelton | Lehi Free Press
Between 2020 and 2022, Utah’s housing market was booming. During that time, prices jumped roughly 40%, the sharpest surge in Utah’s modern housing history. Since then, growth has cooled dramatically. From 2022 through 2025, prices rose less than 4% over that three-year period.
These and other interesting facts about the recent history and forecast of the local real estate market were presented to the Salt Lake Board of Realtors by James Wood. Wood is a longtime Utah housing economist with the University of Utah’s Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute. His report has tracked population growth, housing demand and affordability trends in Utah for decades and is widely cited by state and local officials, builders and lenders. Salt Lake County is used in the report as it is considered the bellwether county for real estate trends along the Wasatch Front.
In 2020, the average cost of a home in Sale Lake County was $380,000. In two years, the average home cost jumped to $530,000 and is forecast to be $572,200 in 2027. Wood compared the historical growth rate of homes in Salt Lake County with the actual growth rate. In 2027, the historical growth rate suggests the average home cost will be $560,150. While the gap between the actual cost of a home and the historical average has been closing in recent years, in 2027, there is still about a $12,000 gap between the two.
According to the National Association of Realtors, home prices from 2020 to 2025 increased by about 62.5%. Wood described the current moment as a pause after years of upheaval. “We are really catching our breath now,” he said, noting that median home prices fell 2.8% from 2022 to 2023.
Looking ahead, Wood said the county’s for-sale housing market in 2026 is likely to resemble what buyers and sellers have seen in recent years, with no major shifts expected.
“I think for 2026, I don’t see many indicators out there that can say, ‘well, we’re going to, all of a sudden, see a surge in buying or a surge in prices,’” Wood said.
In Wood’s report, he mentioned that the 2026 market headwinds include a slowing Utah economy and economic uncertainty, coupled with an interest lock: over 61% of mortgage holders have an interest rate below 4%. With home prices rising and interest rates above 4%, the market seems to offer little hope for most homeowners to upgrade or move from their current homes.
The market tailwinds for 2026 include more favorable mortgage rates (below 6%). This year also marks the fourth year of recovery from the pandemic, and a relatively high share of young households.
