Lehi Business
Utah’s top economist: “Utah County’s got a lot to offer”
Rob Shelton
For over a decade, Central Bank has been gathering Utah County’s business leaders for an annual invitation-only economic breakfast, providing crucial insights into the region’s financial outlook. At this year’s event, attendees learned that Utah County is driving nearly 40% of the state’s population growth and outpacing other metro areas in job creation, according to a leading state economist.
Natalie Gochnour, associate dean at the University of Utah’s David Eccles School of Business and chief economist for the Salt Lake Chamber, painted an optimistic picture of both the state and county’s economic trajectory.
“If you’re doing business in Utah, make sure you have a good share of Utah County, because Utah County’s got a lot to offer right now,” Gochnour told the gathered business leaders.
The county’s job growth rate of 2.1% is more than double that of neighboring Salt Lake and Davis counties, according to recent data. The area is welcoming approximately 18 new residents daily through net migration, with much of the growth concentrated west of Utah Lake in communities like Saratoga Springs and Eagle Mountain.
Utah’s overall economic performance continues to lead the nation, with the state posting the highest GDP growth rate at 4.6% through the third quarter of 2023. The construction industry remains particularly robust, ranking as the second-fastest growing sector behind healthcare.
The state’s economic success extends beyond traditional metrics. According to research from Harvard economist Raj Chetty, every county in Utah ranks among the nation’s best for upward mobility—the ability of children from lower-income families to earn higher incomes than their parents and advance economically.
“This data shows that if you’re born into a lower-income family in Utah, you have a significantly better chance of moving up the economic ladder than in most other parts of the country,” Gochnour said, noting that Chetty will visit Utah in March to present his findings to state leaders.
However, Gochnour highlighted challenges facing the region, particularly in housing affordability. Rising mortgage rates and home prices are creating barriers for first-time homebuyers, a trend she warns could have long-term implications for wealth creation among young adults.
“What I’m worried about is the people that are trying to become homeowners,” Gochnour said. “Think of all the young adults who don’t have help and have to delay homeownership for a decade—they’ll be permanently less wealthy.”
The economist called for increased cooperation between state and local governments to address housing constraints, emphasizing the need for streamlined permitting processes to meet market demand.
Looking ahead to 2025, Gochnour expressed optimism about continued economic growth while noting that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates before September, as inflation remains stubborn at around 2.6%.
Gochnour also highlighted Utah’s fiscal responsibility, noting the state maintains a triple-A bond rating from all three major rating agencies—Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s, and Fitch. This stands in stark contrast to federal government spending patterns, where annual expenditures are outpacing revenues by $2 trillion.
“It’s like termites in the house,” Gochnour said of the federal deficit, which includes nearly $1 trillion in interest payments. “They’re eating away at the foundations of the financial outlook for this country.”
She praised Utah’s approach to fiscal management, citing the state’s balanced budget requirements, robust reserve accounts, and spending limitations as a “gold standard” for government financial responsibility.
The presentation reflects Central Bank’s longstanding commitment to the region’s economic vitality. Founded in 1891 as the Springville Banking Company by Milan Packard, great-great-grandfather of current president Mark Packard, the institution has deep roots in Utah County.
The bank’s resilience has been demonstrated throughout its history, including during the 2008 financial crisis when it relied on its own reserves rather than accepting federal bailout or TARP funds.
As part of its ongoing community engagement, the bank makes an annual donation to a University of Utah scholarship fund in recognition of Gochnour’s contributions to the economic breakfast series.
